May 25 2018

Opinion polls show opposition winning majority in Turkish parliament

According to pollster Mediar, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will not receive enough votes to win the presidency in the first round of elections on June 24, news site Duvar reported on Friday.

Mediar’s survey was conducted on May 22–23 in 26 provinces in Turkey among 4,268 people. According to the results, Erdoğan will receive 43.50 percent of the votes in the first round of presidential elections. The Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate Muharrem İnce will receive 22.20 percent in the first round and will be Erdoğan’s rival in the second round on Jul. 8.

Voters in Turkey will also elect 600 members of the parliament on Jun 24. According to Mediar, Turkey’s Cumhur Ittifaki (the People’s Alliance), an election alliance between the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), will receive 45.63 percent of the vote, but will lose its majority in the parliament. Millet İttifakı (the Nation Alliance) composed of the CHP, the nationalist Good Party, Islamist Felicity Party, and right-wing Democrat Party will receive 42.5 percent, while the mainly-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party will pass the election threshold with 11.39 percent.

Another pollster Remres also shared its updated predictions for the upcoming elections with the public on Firday. Remres’s survey was conducted between 6–9 May in 28 cities on 3,653 people. 

According to Remres, Cumhur İttifakı will receive 43.9 percent of the votes on Jun. 24, while Millet İttifakı polled 43.5 percent after the reallocation of ‘don’t know’ votes. The HDP will pass the election threshold, with 12.2 percent. Remres also predicts that the winner of the executive presidency will be decided in the second round, as president Erdoğan is expected to receive 42.1 percent of the votes in the first round, followed by Muharrem İnce with 24.1 percent.