May 28 2018

Support for opposition alliance increasing according to new poll

Ahead of the presidential and parliamentarian election in Turkey on June 24, the voters’ support for the governing alliance shows a declining trend, while the support for the opposition alliance is increasing, according to pollster İstanbul Ekonomi Araştırma’s (IE) latest results shared on Twitter on Sunday.

When asked which alliance they would vote for, 44.5 percent of the voters said they would vote for the People’s Alliance of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and ultra-nationalist National Movement Party (MHP) on May 26.

On May 16, the People’s Alliance’s vote share was 48.8 percent.  

Nation Alliance established by the secularist Republican People’s Party (CHP), nationalist İYİ Party, Islamist Felicity Party, and right-wing Democrat Party, will receive 40.5 percent of the votes according to the poll on May 26, compared to 37.2 percent on May 16.

According to IE, none of the alliances will have majority in the Parliament, as the mainly Kurdish HDP will pass the election threshold of 10 percent.

When voters were asked which party they would vote for if the elections were to be held on May 26, the results point out that all parties both gain and lose voters because of election alliances. 

The poll also reveals a decline in AKP votes and an increase in CHP votes between May 16 and 26. During that period Turkish economy was hit by a serious decline in the value of Turkish lira and  the markets were rattled by president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s statements that he would override the independence of Turkey’s Central Bank to force through low interest rates. Economy is the top concern of the Turkish voters according the polling firms. 

IE’s latest data suggests that the winner of the presidential elections will be decided in the second round on July 8, as president Erdoğan will not be able to receive 50 percent of the votes in the first round.