No-deal Brexit will hit trade with Turkey, eastern Europe: EBRD

Trade with Turkey and other emerging economies will suffer if the Britain leaves the European Union with no deal, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has warned.

“The EBRD, which pumps in billions of euros into eastern Europe and Turkey each year, said 6.8 percent of the combined region’s domestic value-added exports would be affected by any potential disruptions to trade linkages,” Reuters reported on Friday.

Turkey’s share would be among the hardest hit, besides Cyprus and Poland, the three of which have a combined share of between 7.9 percent and 9.1 percent of Britain’s export volume, the bank said.

“In absolute terms, both Turkey and Poland would face the highest exposure to trade disruptions with domestic value-added exports of around $12 billion being directly and indirectly exported to the UK in 2015,” Reuters quoted an EBRD report as saying.

The likelihood of Britain crashing out without a deal is high, EU diplomats believe. British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal was rejected by a large majority of British MPs for a third time on Friday, casting uncertainty on the next step for the beleaguered Conservative Party government.

Shortly after the vote, European Council President Donald Tusk called a summit of EU leaders on April 10 to discuss Britains departure from the union. Britain is due to leave the EU on April 12, and as things stand will leave with no deal unless another extension is secured.

The EBRD report stated that indirect trade through the EU supply chain will also be affected in the event of a British departure without a deal.