Turkey growth outperformance hinges on capital inflows – Fitch

Turkey’s predicted outperformance among the world’s top-ten emerging-market economies is dependent on high rates of investment, Fitch Ratings said in a report.

A sustained slowdown in capital inflows to the country would make the investment needed to drive growth vulnerable, Fitch said.

Turkey’s economy is expected to grow at an average of 4.8 percent over the next five years, faster than Mexico, Poland, South Korea, Brazil, Russia and South Africa, Fitch estimated. India is likely to be the fastest growing economy at 6.7 percent, followed by China and Indonesia, with 5.5 percent, it said.

“India in particular, but also Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey and Brazil are set to see continued robust growth in the working-age population in the next five years, bolstering GDP growth potential,” Fitch said. “In contrast, in Russia, Poland, China and Korea headwinds from deteriorating demographics will sharpen and weigh on growth.”