Pollsters say Turkey’s Erdoğan might fail to win presidential bid outright

The latest Turkish opinion poll said support for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is lower than he needs to secure a new executive presidency to start after elections to be held before November next year, opposition newspaper Cumhuriyet said.

With the vote of those undecided redistributed, SONAR gave Erdoğan 46.3 percent of the vote in the presidential elections, lower than a poll by Konsensus five days ago that showed his support at 48.1 percent.

Candidates need to secure more than half the vote in a first round of presidential elections to avoid a second-round run-off. Turkey is to move from a parliamentary system of government to an executive presidency under changes narrowly approved in a referendum in April last year.

SONAR said support for Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in parliamentary elections to be held at the same time was 40.1 percent and Konsensus said it was 44.9 percent.

The two polls also returned widely different predictions of what would happen to the political opposition, with SONAR expecting the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), the nationalist Good Party and pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) to gain the necessary 10 percent of the national vote to take up seats in parliament.

But the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), SONAR said, would fail to gain entry to the national assembly. Konsensus said both the CHP and MHP would pass the 10-percent threshold to enter parliament, but said the HDP and Good Party would not.

Particularly striking is how SONAR puts support for the newly formed Good Party at 14.2 percent, while Konsensus sees it at only 2.7 percent.

One possible factor that could have caused this shift is the announcement by the MHP of formal support for the AKP government. Even so, it looks like the different companies are tapping into different trends in Turkish nationalist circles in their research.



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