Erdoğan will regret attacking Germany

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will regret accusing German officials of Nazi tendencies as he prepares for talks in Berlin on Thursday, said Fadi Hakura in an analysis for CNN.

Erdoğan will come to understand the words of American dramatist Wilson Mizner who said: "Be nice to people on your way up because you'll meet them on your way down”, said Hakura, who manages the Turkey Project at Chatham House in London.

The Turkish president should prepare for an icy reception on his first visit to Europe’s biggest economy since 2014.

Erdoğan’s desire to "completely leave behind all the problems and to create a warm environment between Turkey and Germany just like it used to be" will, in all likelihood, come to naught, Hakura said.

Germans are unlikely to have forgotten Erdoğan’s accusations last year, as well as his slowness in stemming a flood of migrants to Europe from Syria in 2015 and his latter threats to unleash more unless he got his way, Hakura said.

It was the influx of migrants that gave Germany's far-right, anti-Muslim AfD a platform to increase its popularity. It won seats in the Bundestag for the first time in 2017.

However, Germany’s close economic ties with Turkey and its large ethnic Turkish minority mean Berlin feels that it has no choice to cooperate. Erdoğan’s efforts to prevent a full-scale Russian-Syrian attack on the opposition enclave of Idlib, which would have led to a mass exodus of Syrians to Turkey and possibly Europe, has also been appreciated, Hakura said.

“Nevertheless, Germany will not be keen to throw a lifeline to Erdoğan in the midst of an unfolding economic crisis in Turkey,” he said. “Germany will not provide a financial package to rescue the debt-burdened Turkish economy. Nor will it lift the veto on opening talks to modernize the 22-year-old EU-Turkey Customs Union.”