Yavuz Baydar
Dec 11 2017

Jerusalem announcement heaven-sent for Erdoğan

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seems to have all the luck. However embattled he might be, Erdoğan steamrolls through.

This is what appears to have happened with the gold-for-oil case that had Turkish-Iranian trader Reza Zarrab testifying at a U.S. District Court in New York.

For a while, it seemed as if Erdoğan would have a very difficult time as Zarrab revealed key details of the billion-dollar scheme to smuggle gold for oil in violation of US sanc­tions on Iran.

U.S. prosecutors say the scheme exposes an organised crime ring that involves a former member of Erdoğan’s cabinet and several Turkish bureaucrats.

Erdoğan cast a long shadow on the case. In the latest phase of the trial, Zarrab implicated Erdoğan, saying that he had ordered the scheme.

Even this extraordinary news from a U.S. courtroom does not seem to have affected Erdoğan’s run of luck. Turkey’s harried and submissive media are repeating the narrative that the nation is un­der attack. Erdoğan is in control of the domestic debate.

Internationally, he has been under increasing scrutiny and ramped up the nationalist rhetoric in response. U.S. President Donald Trump, however, has unwittingly come to the rescue.

Trump’s decision to recog­nise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital couldn’t have come at a better moment for Erdoğan. Just hours before Trump’s declaration, Jordanian King Abdullah II was in Ankara for talks, despite sharp differences between King Abdul­lah and Erdoğan over the Syrian crisis.

“Any misstep regarding Jeru­salem would cause new tensions in our region,” Erdoğan declared after the meeting, conscious per­haps that the spotlight had moved from the Zarrab hearings.

Erdoğan is a master reader of his people’s moods. He knows that anti-Semitism and anti-Americanism unite large swaths of Turkish conservative and left-leaning opinion. Before the Zarrab trial, Erdoğan found elements of the far-left lining up to endorse his anti-American imperialism argument.

Trump’s Jerusalem decision is more significant by far. Until June 2016, Erdoğan had used the 7-year-old rift between Israel and Turkey to appeal to the Justice and Development Party’s pious supporters. Israel’s newly em­boldened position, courtesy of the United States, offers Erdoğan a way to argue that cosying up to Iran and Russia and drifting ever so slightly away from Western alliances is the right course. It is a given that he will proclaim ever more loudly that he chose the cor­rect path for Turkey.

International events are favour­ably aligned for Erdoğan. The Jerusalem issue is a useful card he can play with Islamist constituen­cies at home and abroad. The day after he met with the Jordanian king, Erdoğan discussed the Jeru­salem issue with Russian Presi­dent Vladimir Putin. On this, just as with anti-Americanism, both men are on the same page.

Erdoğan is aware that national­ism blended with religion will reinforce his position. His strategy was clear when he visited Greece in early December.

Even as he became the first Turkish head of state in 65 years to visit, Erdoğan suggested the need for the Lausanne Treaty to be revised. The treaty has long governed Greek-Turkish relations and is a cornerstone of regional peace. Perhaps perceiving the ir­redentism of the remarks, Greece categorically rejected them.

Had Erdoğan foreseen such a reaction? Even if not, it is likely he will spin it in a way that will main­tain the streak of luck.

This column first published at ArabWekkly