Dec 15 2017

Turkey should be concerned about S-400 sanctions risk - analyst

“The risks of (U.S.) sanctions should not be undersold” if Turkey goes ahead with its planned purchase of the S-400 anti-aircraft missile system from Russia, meaning a loss of contracts for the Turkish defence sector, an analyst at the Atlantic Council said.

“There could (be) repercussions for F-35 related offsets, which are contracts. For TR (Turkey), this would mean TAI (Turkish Aerospace Industries) fuselage production and, perhaps, some weapons system work with U.S. defence firms,” Aaron Stein tweeted.

“A broader interpretation could be for more U.S. offsets/co-production work with TR spanning the entirety of the Turkish defence sector.”

The proposed purchase of weapons from Russia, which will require the development of closer relations between the Russian and Turkish militaries and which may lead to Russia accessing information about U.S. technology already in use by Turkey, would not improve Turkey’s standing within the NATO alliance.

U.S. deputy undersecretary of the Air Force for international affairs Heidi Grant said last month that Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile could have consequences for its involvement in the manufacture of F-35 stealth fighter plane fuselages and servicing of the aircraft. (link - https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/dubai-air-show/2017/11…)

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu has said that the final contract for the S-400s will likely be signed this coming week, although Turkey has already put down a deposit on the anti-aircraft system.

It is unclear exactly whether U.S. President Donald Trump has the right to override the sanctions implied by the 2017 Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, Stein said.

However, he said, the company responsible for producing the S-400 system was on the list of companies the sanctions applied to.

“Consensus (in the U.S.) is that S-400 is for ‘palace defence’,” Stein said, referring to some commentators’ belief that Erdoğan wishes to be able to use them to shoot down his own F-16s in the case of a military coup attempt.