Erdoğan’s political allies would likely fail to enter parliament at election - poll

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s main political allies in parliament would likely fail to pass the vote threshold required to enter parliament should an election be held today, an opinion poll showed.

The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) of Devlet Bahçeli, who has encouraged Erdoğan to pursue a right-wing, expansionist agenda at home and abroad, has the support of 6.5 percent of the electorate, according to the survey by Türkiye Raporu. The vote threshold currently stands at 10 percent.

Erdoğan secured a legislative majority at general elections in 2018 thanks to the MHP’s backing in a loose coalition. His Justice and Development Party's (AKP) relations with other political groups are fractured. The next presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey are due to be held in 2023.

The AKP has the support of 37.2 percent of the electorate and the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) 19.2 percent. The figures do not include undecided voters, who numbered 14 percent of the total polled, Türkiye Raporu said.

The Good Party (İP) had the backing of 9.2 percent of the public and the pro-Kurdish Democratic People’s Party (HDP) 8.9 percent, meaning it is possible that both groups would enter parliament when undecided voters make their choices and cast ballots.

Erdoğan has recently encouraged the İP to merge with the MHP ahead of any election. Politicians split from the MHP to form IP in October 2017. The group is led by Meral Akşener, a former interior minister and deputy speaker of parliament.

Türkiye Raporu said it questioned 1,537 people in 12 provinces of Turkey for the poll. It did not provide a margin of error for the results.