Turkish central bank survey sees year-end inflation edging lower

Turkish inflation is expected to edge down from a 15-year high by the end of the year, according to a central bank monthly survey of expectations.

The inflation rate will probably be 24.5 percent in December compared with the 25.2 percent reported by the government for October, the poll of economists and businessmen published on Thursday said. A similar survey in October had predicted year-end inflation of 24.2 percent. Inflation was seen at 17.4 percent in 12 months time. 

Inflation in Turkey has surged this year after the lira fell by about a third against the dollar and the government stimulated the economy with tax cuts and loan incentives, raising fears of economic overheating. The central bank raised the benchmark one-week repo lending rate to 24 percent in September from a previous 17.75 percent but has left it unchanged since, raising concern that price increases might accelerate further.

The lira is expected to trade at 5.5096 per dollar by the end of November compared with 5.4 per dollar on Thursday. The currency may weaken to 5.6405 at year-end and 6.3709 in 12 months, according to the survey.

The economy was seen growing at 3.1 percent this year and 1.6 percent in 2019, down from predictions in October of 3.2 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively.

The survey, conducted monthly, was made with a panel of 96 participants consisting of 76 experts from the financial sector, 12 from the real sector and eight professionals.

http://tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/7d0b1e66-2858-4b82-80fe-78592a41945f/SE-Report-Int.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-7d0b1e66-2858-4b82-80fe-78592a41945f-msn8GoD