Turkey’s new election date becomes blaringly evident

Public debate in Turkey, which is largely guided, restricted and thus barren, is limited by developments taking place in domestic politics. As Turkey experiences a series of gloomy and disappointing developments, one after another, these stifled debates fail to generate the power and ability to remove the heavy lock hanging on the country’s system crisis.

It is not all that difficult to see what is happening. The reason why the country’s undecided voters and protesters have soared above 25 percent is in large part due to Turkey’s opposition – excluding the wounded and cursed pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP)  – the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and centre-right Good Party conducting deficient politics that are not grounded, thus effectively closing themselves off in a glass globe of their making.

As for Turkey’s two new ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) breakaways, they, too, are failing to deliver. The Future Party’s leader Ahmet Davutoğlu is vocal, but his statements are the equivalent of background noise, with the emanation of sound, though not backed with any ensuing action. And then there is Ali Babacan’s Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA), which has opted to merely get by in a timid and bashful fashion, taking small jabs at the ruling power for the time being.

All three of these parties have a common denominator: they are conducting their disjointed politics on the notion that the AKP will fall and they will remain on standby until then.

According to these parties, Turkey is not on the edge of a cliff, and the elections are inevitable; driven not by democratic concerns, but an alliance to take power for themselves.

It seems likely that Turkey will surpass this current, dark bottleneck with the present state of the country’s opposition parties, despite their timid stances.

If something is to change, to be triggered, then one must focus on Turkey’s foreign policy. That is where the game-changer is found. That is where the real action is unfolding.

Why is that the case? Because the ruling power is right where it wishes to be at home thanks to the opposition, which is laying low in the trenches. But the outside world is nothing like home. Every step you take – to the extent to which they are adventurist based in fait accompli – will result in the formation of a concrete opposition front.

We are exposed every day and see the concrete developments of the fusion of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Islamist and pro-Ikhwan ideology, with the pan-Turkist ideology of his junior coalition partner, Devlet Bahçeli.

Please note that this doctrine envisages a future in which the Lausanne Treaty, in its current form, is rendered invalid, and fantasies of the National Pact of 1920 are brought to life by Turkey’s centennial year of 2023. Iraq, Syria, Libya, Cyprus, Armenia, Somalia, Yemen, the Eastern Mediterranean… all of these locations and developments unfolding therein paint a clear full picture of what awaits Turkey.

This doctrine also reminds us of the moves triggered by the National Socialists, who fobbed off the material and spiritual defeat of Germany's Treaty of Versailles on Germans for their own benefit. Expansionism is a deadly disease; its results have never been beneficial.

Let me also draw parallel between Erdoğan´s Libya policy – elaborated step by step with Bahceli and his Eurasian segment – and the Vietnam invasion that led to the United States' defeat.

The Turkish regime is now excited to play a war game using jihadists as pawns; keeping the war rope aside, looking at opposing neighbours and testing whether they will also give up like the domestic opposition, and, when it hesitates, stepping on the gas, harshening the language and making a bold appearance.

The rule is clear: if you play with a gun, you will eventually have to use it. You will then also have to endure the results.

In addition, the results of the game are not fine. As it goes on, you are confronting multiple countries. Egypt will definitely enter Libya. If it gets hot, Germany, France and Italy will press for sanctions.

The interesting point is that the coalition bloc in Ankara does not have a foreign power to lean on the outside. Qatar is – up to some extent. Pakistan too. Azerbaijan will ultimately return to Russia, where its orbit belongs to.

The only stand in Washington who is the counterpart, who is correspondent of bilateral phone calls, foreign-policy ignorant, and confused, U.S. President Donald Trump. When he utters a sentence in private telephone conversations, it is perceived by Erdoğan as if the entire U.S. establishment agreed to say it.

However, we are talking about a more-or-less unstable leader, losing altitude with each passing day, breaking away from deep-rooted institutions.

This means the following: like in a horse race, Erdoğan has invested all his assets on Trump to win the elections. Did he convince Bahçeli too in this matter? It is not yet certain, but he is now dependent on Bahçeli inside and Trump outside. The only problem is to win this high-stake gamble. If Trump loses, his whole world will be turned upside down; that's for sure. He knows this that too.

Therefore, Turkey’s election date is clear: November 3rd, 2020. It will be American voters who not only will choose the next president of their country, but also shape the future of Turkey and its people.

The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Ahval.