Russian analysts divided on impact of Turkey’s expanded role in Caucasus - analysis

Russian analysts maintain differing opinions on Turkey’s expanded role in the Caucasus following the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disrupted region of Nagorno-Karabakh, wrote Paul Gobble, a specialist on ethnic and religious questions in Eurasia, in the Eurasia Review on Sunday.

For some, Turkey’s presence in the region is a move that benefits Ankara economically and politically, while others believe the country’s role gives Moscow justification for expanding its military presence in the region, Gobble wrote.

Six weeks of fighting between Armenian separatists and the Turkish- backed Azeri military over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, ended on Nov. 10 with a Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement. 

Russia has deployed peacekeepers to Nagorno-Karabakh to maintain the ceasefire deal, while Turkish military personnel will help man a control centre with Russia that oversees policing and compliance.

Turkey’s main win from backing Azerbaijan against Armenia has to do with oil and gas, according to Russian analyst Vladimir Sotnikov, who dismissed the idea that “Ankara’s moves are strengthening pan-Turkist ideas.’’

 “The alliance of Turkey with Azerbaijan is in the first instance connected with Ankara’s political ambitions,” according to Muslim nationalities specialist Aleksey Malashenko, who believes Turkey is not gaining economic benefits from the deal. 

But, Malashenko maintains, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan can now claim that he has more backing as the older brother “of the Turkic peoples.”

According to Turcologist Boris Dolgov, a senior scholar at the Moscow Institute of Oriental Studies, Turkey’s help for Azerbaijan has left the South Caucasus nation in debt to Ankara. 

Payments by Baku will comprise both economic concessions on the price of oil and strategic concessions, including agreement on Turkish bases in Azerbaijan, Dolgov maintains.