Turkey may have military edge over Russia in Syria, analyst says

Turkey could have a possible military advantage in a direct confrontation with Russia in Syria, if such an occasion arose, analyst Michael Peck wrote for U.S. magazine the National Interest.

“Russia’s overall military superiority doesn’t translate into superior strength on the ground in northwestern Syria,” Peck said, referring to Syria’s Idlib province, where Syrian government forces and Turkey-backed rebels have fiercely clashed over control of the area.

Without a substantial capacity to airlift supplies to Russian forces in Syria, Moscow heavily relies on regular sea-bound shipments through Turkey’s Bosporus Straits to Syrian ports to sustain several thousand troops and dozens of warplanes. In the event of a direct confrontation, Turkey can close the waterway and cut off Russia’s logistical support, Peck wrote.

Although Russia has a larger military and a huge arsenal of nuclear warheads, Peck pointed out that “a Russian retaliatory strike on Turkey itself would also be risky”.

“While NATO is unlikely to support Turkey’s campaign in Syria – which is outside the alliance’s zone – it would be obligated to aid a member whose national territory has been attacked,” Peck wrote.

Because of their close proximity in Idlib’s conflict and their backing of opposing sides, Turkey and Russia face multiple catalysts that might trigger direct combat between them, Peck wrote, citing Russia military expert Michael Kofman.

“While both sides are working to avoid a conflict, neither side can accept loss of life without taking some kind of measures,” Peck wrote.