Syria and Turkey benefitting from Idlib quagmire - Arab News

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan appears to have entered into a Faustian bargain with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in war-torn Syria, where Moscow retains a free hand in Idlib in exchange for backing Turkey’s interests in Libya, wrote columnist Talmiz Ahmad in Saudi newspaper Arab News.

The recent fulminations of Turkey’s strongman over Syria’s last rebel-stronghold of Idlib and Russia should be viewed with deep scepticism, the article said.

Erdoğan threatened on Friday to launch a military operation in Syria's northwestern Idlib province, where Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces, backed by Russian air power, have made rapid advances, unless fighting there is quickly halted.

The recent campaign by the Assad regime has raised tensions between Turkey and Russia, which back opposing sides in the conflict.

With hundreds of thousands pushing towards the border with Turkey to escape the advance, country, home to some 3.6 million Syrian refugees, fears a fresh wave of migrants from Idlib.

While Edoğan blames Moscow for failing to fulfil its commitments under the Sochi agreement, Ahmad wrote, Ankara is in no position to distance itself from Russia or seriously oppose Russian actions in Idlib. 

The Russian and Turkish foreign ministers had a telephone conversation a day before the fall of Ma’arat Al-Nu’man, a key town which had been in rebel hands since 2012, which suggests that none of the latest developments in Syria have caught Turkey by surprise, the article said.

"Since last November, Turkey has positioned itself for a military role in the Libyan conflict and sees strategic advantages for itself in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean. It is, however, isolated in the region and needs to work closely with Russia, which is backing the opposite side on the Libyan divide,’’ Ahmad wrote.

Turkey signed a military deal with Libya’s U.N.-recognised Government of National Accord in Tripoli (GNA) in November, allowing it to deploy troops in the North African country. 

Libya is split between the GNA and the Tobruk government, led by General Khalifa Haftar, the de facto ruler of eastern Libya and head of the Libyan National Army (LNA). Haftar has launched an assault to control Tripoli in April. 

The LNA is supported by Russia, Egypt, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, while Turkey and Qatar back the GNA.